IT DID LOWER QPF SLIGHTLY…BUT THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM REMAINED SIMILAR TO ITS 12Z RUN. HOWEVER…THE 00Z ECMWF REMAINED VERY CONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS RUNS. MUCH OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE LOWERED QPF AMOUNTS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION…WHICH WOULD MEAN LOWER SNOW TOTALS. NWP GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN A LITTLE MORE SPREAD THAN ONE WOULD LIKE TO SEE AT SUCH A SHORT RANGE. HOUR EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.Ī portion of the forecast discussion by local NWS mets on this storm at 10 am EST. WITH ALL OF THIS IN MIND…DID LOWER SNOW TOTALS SLIGHTLY INĬOLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND WPC…BUT WE ARE STILLĮXPECTING AN OVERALL 18 TO 24 INCHES…LOCALLY HIGHER WHERE BEST MODELS ALSO HAVE A TENDENCY TO NOT SPREAD THE BEST LIFT SNOW BANDS…BUT IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT THEIR LOCATION THISįAR OUT. THE MID LEVEL LOWĬENTERS AND INTENSE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL PROMOTE HEAVY PROLONGED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED ON THE NWįLANK OF THE LOW…IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE. THE LOW STALLS SE OF MONTAUK LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. PARENT UPPER LOW CUTS OFF ALOFT NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST STILL ANTICIPATE THE LOW TO UNDERGO RAPID INTENSIFICATION AS THE MAXIMUM OFFSHORE…AND DOES NOT SEEM TO GET FULLY CAPTURED BY THE SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AS THE SURFACE LOW FOLLOWS QPF THE 00Z GFS APPEARS TO BE A FAST NE OUTLIER. REMAINED SIMILAR TO THE 00Z ECMWF AND 06Z NAM. IN FACT…THE LATEST 06Z NAM HAS COME INTOĬLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF. DID NOT WANT TO MAKEĭRASTIC CHANGES TO THE EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS AND HEADLINES WITH OF THE SYSTEM REMAINED SIMILAR TO ITS 12Z RUN. IT DID LOWER QPF SLIGHTLY…BUT THE OVERALL EVOLUTION HOWEVER…THE 00Z ECMWF REMAINED VERY CONSISTENT WITH ITS MUCH OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE LOWERED QPFĪMOUNTS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION…WHICH WOULD MEAN LOWER SNOW NWP GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN A LITTLE MORE SPREAD THAN ONE WOULD LIKE TO To get an idea how they put together their forecast, here’s a portion of the forecast discussion local NWS mets put out at 10 am EST. Say, with tomorrow’s photos of the stranded cars: With the media now in full-panic mode, over three thousands flights cancelled, and Connecticut banning all auto travel after 9 p.m., it will be interesting to see how all this plays out. Now, if you really believe global warming causes colder conditions, I have a snow-covered bridge in Brooklyn I’d like to sell you. But with colder air, it will be a major snowstorm. or so warmer, we would be talking about a wind and rain non-event. Well, if the weather conditions were only 5 deg. What I’m dreading is for the next week reporters are going to be asking me about the role of global warming in all of this. Most of the snow will fall tonight and early tomorrow. In this kind of weather situation, it is also likely that lightning and thunder will occur in some locations. High winds will make the current storm worse than normal for a snowstorm, with winds easily gusting over 30 mph in NYC, but Long Island and portions of coastal New England can expect 50+ mph gusts. In 2nd place, December 26-27, 1947 saw a 26 inch snowfall. 2006, the all-time record was set at just under 27 inches. In New York City, many snowstorms have produced 15 inch snowfalls, but only a couple have produced 2-foot snowfalls. 20, 2009 when just over 2 feet of snow piled up. The Long Island snowfall record was smashed on Dec. Note that it is calling for 15-18 inches for the NYC-Long Island area, increasing to 2 feet around Boston. 57-model member “best” forecast of total snowfall ending Thursday morning, Jan.
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